Alec Ross served as an innovation and technology advisor for four years during the tenure of former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Previously, he served on the Obama campaign, helping Obama defeat Hillary Clinton in the 2008 presidential primary. During his four years working for Hillary Clinton, he visited 41 countries as a diplomat, from refugee camps in Congo to war zones in Syria, from Kenyan start-ups to R&D labs in South Korea, and visited the most important enterprises and governments. Powerful people, exploring the latest developments on every continent in the world. It is difficult to say which country will forever remain at the top of the innovation pyramid. Across the globe, people are also beginning to deeply appreciate the oppression of emerging inequality and unpleasant divisions. Through this stark contrast, Ross explores the industries that will dominate our economy and society over the next 20 years, arguing that the future of robotics, cutting-edge natural science, fintech, cybersecurity, and big data—as well as the enabling Geopolitics, culture and the background of the times will be the most important, most promising, most representative, and inseparable industries in the next round of industrial revolution. Anyone who wants to understand the next wave of innovation and globalization and stay ahead of the times should have a deep understanding of the current state and future trends of these five industries. Robot Industry: Turning Science Fiction into Reality Brain Hole Base Camp “Robocat” has brought countless beautiful fantasy to our childhood, but many of the brain holes that seemed whimsical in those years have now become reality. The increasing penetration of robotics into our daily lives clearly brings many benefits to our society. Its application can reduce the number of work-related injuries; reduce traffic accidents; and lead to safer and less invasive surgical procedures. Robots will also empower people with countless new capabilities, from enabling bedridden children to go to school to enabling deaf people to experience the power of language. One day leading a Robot out will be as casual as going out with a grocery basket. Japan is already a world leader in robotics, operating 310,000 of the world’s 1.4 million industrial robots. Two foes in Japan’s auto industry, Toyota and Honda, are now also using their advanced skills in mechanical engineering to develop the next generation of robots. Honda has also focused its extensive research and commercialization process on developing mechanical prosthetics and mechanical aids for non-independent robots. About 70% of the world’s Robot sales come from Japan, China, the United States, South Korea and Germany, the “Big Five” in robotics. Japan, the United States and Germany dominate the trend of high-value industrial and medical robots, while South Korea and China are major suppliers of relatively inexpensive consumer-oriented robots. While Japan has set a record for Robot sales, China represents the fastest-growing market: its sales have grown by 25 percent every year since 2005. It is even possible that the relative advantages of the Big Five will accelerate in the future, as these are the countries most likely to integrate the next generation of robotics into society, work and home. They will have a well-known brand of consumer robots and drive the development of the software and networks that make the robotics ecosystem possible. Interestingly, less developed countries may be able to skip some technologies when entering the robotics industry. Countries in Africa and Central Asia jumped straight into the era of mobile phones without ever making landlines, so in the same way they might be able to jump ahead in robotics without having to build an advanced industrial base first. However, formidable challenges remain. Designing robots that can perform intimate behaviors like bathing a patient or brushing teeth is still technically difficult, and most Japanese companies developing these robots specialize in industrial engines and electronic automation. They entered the nursing field without a keen grasp of how to build emotional connection, an important factor in elderly care. Furthermore, as robotics begins to spread widely, how successful a country can be in the age of robots will depend in part on culture — whether people are willing to accept robots into their lives. Western and Eastern cultures are highly differentiated in how they view robots. Japan has not only an economic need and technical knowledge for robots, but also a cultural predisposition. Japanese culture is more inclined to accept robot companions as true companions than Western culture, which sees robots as soulless machines. By contrast, deep-rooted in Western culture is the fear of robots. Threats from uncontrollable objects created by humans can be seen everywhere in Western literature. The cultural push in Japan to embrace robotics is representative of many cultures in East Asia, so the Asian robotics industry without cultural barriers has been able to advance at a high speed. Investing in robots reflects cultural tolerance for robots. In China, automation departments are ubiquitous and highly valued in universities. All Chinese universities have more than 100 automation departments, while American universities have only about 76 automation departments, although the total number is more than that of Chinese universities. In South Korea, teaching robots are seen as positive; in Europe, they are viewed negatively. The field of genetic technology: human beings become the de facto creator. Genome research has been developing rapidly since Gregor Mendel discovered the basic principles of inheritance in the mid-19th century. Almost instantly, people began to pay attention to the genome. The Holy Grail of Science: Sequencing the Human Genome. In June 2000, former US President Bill Clinton announced the completion of the “draft” of the human genome, and three years later, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium announced that the work had been completed. Sequencing the human genome cost $2.7 billion. In 2013, the market economic valuation of genomics was just over $11 billion, and it is rising at an incredible rate. It is Ronald W. Davis, director of the Center for Genome Science and Technology at Stanford University, who likens the current state of genomics to the state of e-commerce in 1994, when humanity is heading for the coming prosperous “Gene Age.” In January 2015, President Obama announced a $215 million investment from the U.S. government, beginning a 10-year, multi-billion-dollar initiative involving 1 million volunteers to develop a gene and tumor specificity for each individual. Features the “Precision Medicine” project. Prescribe the right medicine for each individual’s genome, rather than a cookie-cutter chemotherapy for all cancer patients, which is a big step forward in the practice of medicine, and like the 19th century reference to narcotics, it would make any cutting-edge technology available today. All pale in comparison. Within 15 years after the start of human genome sequence research, China has gradually become a leader in genetic research. China’s BGI is no longer just a contributor to 1% of the sequence; it is now the world’s largest genetic research center, with more genetic sequencing equipment than the entire United States. Some researchers at BGI are even initially discussing sequencing the genomes of all children in China as the ultimate goal. As genomics technology becomes more sophisticated, it will lead to the creation of “custom babies.” Genome sequences allow people to predict potential risks to their bodies. These risk predictions can tell you a lot, such as you are very likely to suffer from heart disease, you will grow to 1.64 meters, your weight will be around 160 pounds, you will be the top track and field player in your class, you Play basketball in the future, or you’ll have a talent for math. Armed with this information, many may choose to customize babies in the future whose genes will map the parents’ best hopes. A few years ago, some scientists used the DNA of a dead Bucado ibex, a wild goat in the Pyrenees that went extinct in 2000, to create an embryo. The embryos were implanted into the wombs of 57 common goats, and one of them persisted until the time of labor. That’s right, in 2003 a common goat gave birth to the once-extinct Bucado ibex. Although the wild goat died after only a few minutes of being born. But the possibility of this coming back to life has lingered in the minds of curious researchers ever since. However, what this technology will bring is still unknown. The resurrection of the goat is one case, but what if the woolly mammoth was brought back to Earth? If this is feasible, as with the technological development of custom babies in the pipeline, people with cutting-edge technology become creator-like character of. As our ability to control our lives increases, we live longer, but our lives also become more complex with more information and choices. Fintech: Blockchain redefines currency Bitcoin is the world’s first widely used cryptocurrency. There are many types of cryptocurrencies, but Bitcoin is by far the largest and most influential one. Bitcoin’s goal is to restructure people’s trust in the financial system in a different way. In the old system, large institutions acted as trusted agents, protecting customers from fraud. But Bitcoin originated from a group that did not trust these traditional institutions, and they were committed to building their own financial system, also based on trust, but using algorithms and encryption technology as collateral. Bitcoin’s breakthrough approach to building a digital trust system is a cryptographic innovation called blockchain. Essentially, a blockchain is a large ledger that records all transactions. Every transaction goes back to the original Bitcoin transaction recorded on the blockchain, but these transactions are anonymous or semi-anonymous. One of the most representative features of the blockchain is its openness. The blockchain records will be distributed to the hands of each bitcoin user, rather than being stored in a specific data center. By making everything public, blockchain greatly reduces the possibility of fraud, as no one can fake assets that don’t exist in plain sight. While many Bitcoin-related industries have been hacked, the blockchain system itself has never been compromised. If surrounding industries merge, blockchain has the potential to make routine transactions such as the online shopping we do every day more reliable and secure. Fraud protection is part of the financial world we live in, and it’s now seen as an unavoidable cost of doing business. Currently, only about 20 countries in the world have what we consider to be modern banking and payment systems; the remaining 175 countries have a long way to go. Therefore, some products and services that we think are readily available in the Western world do not exist in many countries. Even a pure online service company like Netflix only operates in about 40 countries. Bitcoin, an online payment system that anyone can use anytime, anywhere, can enhance and extend the benefits of the modern economic system to everyone around the world. In the future, all currencies may be electronic, and the currencies of inefficient governments will be completely eliminated in the competition. The power of barrier-free transactions on the Internet will unleash the drive for consolidation and globalization, and in the end only 6 currencies will remain: USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CNY, Bitcoin. Cybersecurity Industry: You can’t change the machine, but you can change the program of the machine The digitization of almost everything could be one of the most important economic drivers of the next decade. Looking back at the past 10 years from 2014, you will see the impact of the Internet of Everything. In the next 10 years, the influence of the entire Internet will be 5 to 10 times that of the past. Between 2015 and 2020, the number of wirelessly connected devices is expected to increase from 16 billion to 40 billion. But there is a huge hidden danger here: as these technologies develop rapidly, we are also creating a series of unforeseen new weaknesses and vulnerabilities that are easy for hackers to attack. The Internet of Things continues to rise, but the development of network security lags behind. In the design of those systems, security concerns tend to be an afterthought. Malware, viruses, worms, Trojans, DDoS… Cyber attacks are all familiar terms by now, but we are only just beginning to understand what impact they can have. Perhaps ironically, one of the original goals of the Internet developers building it was to create a decentralized communications network that would not be destroyed by a nuclear strike. Yet it is this decentralized structure that enables a new class of attacks. As more individuals, businesses, and governments move assets online for a variety of reasons, the use of code as a weapon is also increasingly profitable and destructive. What would happen if the robotic system controlling home care was attacked? Could it hurt people? In July 2015, hackers successfully managed to infiltrate a Jeep Cherokee that was speeding down the highway. 20 years from now, when all the new Google cars are on the road, what if someone hacks the entire network of Google cars? Imagine a highway full of connected cars shutting down at the same time. It could be a never-before-seen chain of events. crash. Before long, all the networked “things” in our lives could be targeted by hackers. Today, the power of the web has grown to the point where it can make or break a business, so the chairman of a Fortune 500 company should now ensure that at least one member of his or her board has cyber expertise. More than a decade ago, it was almost mandatory for every board of directors to have at least one member with audit expertise. Five years from now, any board without cyber experts will be seen as a disadvantage of the corporate governance structure. Cybersecurity is one of the fastest growing industries in the world and an inevitable consequence of the weaponization of code. During the 20 years from 1994 to 2014, while enjoying the communication, e-commerce and convenience brought by online life, Internet users did not need to consider security issues. But as more and more parts of our lives become code 1s and 0s, and with the rise of the Internet of Things, cybersecurity must be considered as a core feature in all products developed and commercialized for the future. Some of the top Fortune 500 companies that focus on global issues and “really know what their priorities are” are shifting the focus of their IT departments to cybersecurity. “Works like managing data centers and email, and providing user support have become increasingly non-labor-intensive, while security jobs are the opposite. Globally, as the cybersecurity market seeks Broader definitions seek to become more sophisticated, so their overhead will remain high; solutions are rapidly evolving for an evolving and threatening network environment, and future possibilities in the security field will continue to expand. “The total market size of the Internet industry will expand faster than the research report predicts, reaching $175 billion by the end of 2017. Big Data Industry: Flying in the Clouds of the World Now, every child has a mobile phone. They stay in touch with parents and friends via phone calls and text messages when they leave the house. They send out GPS signals, they leave digital footprints on social media, they are little beacons for data production and consumption. From a child’s first possession The first time he plays a mobile phone or a video game, he begins to build personal information, and throughout his life, this information will continue to grow, accumulate, it can always be collected, related, organized, sold. If a 9-year-old The child said a lot of stupid things on the Internet at the beginning, then this data will accompany him for the rest of his life. Even if we did not send or receive any emails and text messages more than 20 years ago, our personal information is now used by businesses To make money. Data creation has exploded only recently, and data storage has grown exponentially since then. “Big data” is used to describe such a large amount of data and is now used to understand, analyze and predict trends in real time , Many people have the misunderstanding that the progress brought by big data is only related to the amount of data collected. But in fact, if the ability to process data stagnates, the growth of data volume itself is useless. Big data Part of the derived value of the data is related to the amount of data people create, but another part that is just as important, if not more important, is the new ability to use that data in real time to make smarter, more efficient decisions. Obama’s Two Presidential Campaigns, No. One time it was a real use of big data. Now, the two campaigns are well-known for their use of big data. In the heat of the campaign, the Obama campaign used big data to gain insights into things like how to raise money, where In this regard, the campaign teams of other opponents are far behind. Big data has also performed very well in the fields of machine translation, combining with agriculture to solve the global food crisis, financial technology, and logistics. By the time my kids are employed, “big data” will no longer be a buzzword. Those parts of our lives that we don’t think are rooted in data analysis will be infiltrated by big data by then. Big data will change what we eat, how we speak, and the boundaries between our public and private roles. The rise of big data has once again reminded the world of privacy as a major public policy issue. But it is difficult to convince the value of big data technology and privacy Reconciliation. Surveillance and being watched lead to difficulties. Both government intelligence agencies and law enforcement agencies have made enormous space for communication data obtained through surveillance. An issue that is rarely discussed but even more important to the general public is that , cell phone cameras and wearable technology “from below” intercepting our words and deeds, keeping us under surveillance. We publish these images from our cell phones, so our secrets and personal lives are likely to be shared with the world. This The problem is not only about government, industry, but also individuals, who now have technology that the military only had 15 years ago. In addition, over-belief in information is another superstition. We are not only at risk of information leakage, but more importantly, we are gradually losing creativity and our ownership. It is not just a matter of choice. Who owns the constantly generating data of the mobile app we use? Is it the users who are using the app and constantly forming new data, the developers of the app, the companies that make the phones, or the ones responsible for converting the data? Internet Service Providers? But if we can, are we better off keeping all of these technologies out? The answer is no. The last hope that big data can fill the stomachs of 9 billion people in the world will help us overcome the language barrier that has existed since the Tower of Babel, allowing us to detect cancer cells that are only 1% of the current size in advance, saving tens of millions of lives . So how we choose to manage data is as important as managing land in the agricultural age or industry in the industrial age. It’s actually a very short period of time before a series of new normative norms are established and cannot be overturned – I think it is only a few years. So let’s pray that humans will take responsibility and make their own decisions instead of leaving it all to machines.
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