At this moment, due to the impact of the epidemic, Shenzhen has started a 7-day slow life mode.
Compared with the epidemic in early 2020, the current epidemic is also accompanied by many external uncertainties, such as the increasingly complex situation in Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical friction, increased pressure on the global supply chain, inflation, etc. I have to say that in 2022 Although the start of the year is in line with the expected “low opening”, the impact on the confidence of industrial companies is beyond expectations, and the long-term certainty cannot hide short-term anxiety.
About supply chain
According to the latest global manufacturing PMI survey released by HIS Markit at the beginning of the year, the manufacturing industry is still largely under pressure from supply chain bottlenecks and epidemic-related uncertainties.
In the past few months, production growth (supply side) has significantly lagged behind demand growth (demand side), which is reflected in the Robot enterprise side.Orders grow significantly, but deliveries face challengesthe challenges here are not only people, capabilities, management issues, but also issues from the supply chain.
We define 2021 as the year of the outbreak of supply-side conflicts.Against the backdrop of unprecedented supply disruptions, supplier lead times have never historically been stretched as far as 2021, according to a 30-year survey of purchasing managers by IHS Markit.
Returning to the Chinese market, in February, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was 50.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be higher than the threshold, and the manufacturing prosperity level rose slightly.
From the subdivision indexthe production index was 50.4%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the threshold, and the expansion of manufacturing production activities slowed down; the new orders index was 50.7%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range, Manufacturing market demand is booming.
From an industry perspectivethe production index and new order index of medicine, special equipment, automobile and other industries are higher than 54.0%, and the industry is developing rapidly; but the production index and new order index of non-metallic mineral products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries are both lower than 46.0 %, the industry supply and demand is weak.
In terms of company size, the PMIs of large and medium-sized enterprises were 51.8% and 51.4% respectively, up 0.2 and 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, both higher than the threshold; the PMI of small enterprises was 45.1%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month and lower than the threshold. The differentiation has intensified, and the survival and development of small and micro enterprises is facing greater challenges. As the group of small and micro enterprises with the largest proportion, it can be said that they are in a state of waiting to be fed.
Although the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry has rebounded, enterprises still face many prominent problems in their production and operation. The proportion of enterprises that reflect high raw material costs, high labor costs, and financial constraints are 60.2%, 36.3%, and 32.0%, respectively, which are higher than the previous month. increased.
From November to December 2021, benefiting from the easing of supply bottlenecks and policy intervention, the price of raw materials dropped significantly, but this situation did not last long. Entering 2022, the price of raw materials will be affected by the supply and demand situation, and prices will begin to decline. With a sharp rise, cost pressures are increasingly apparent and transmitted to the industry chain.
In February 2022, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of main raw materials were 60.0% and 54.1%, respectively, 3.6 and 3.2 percentage points higher than the previous month. Both price indexes rose significantly for two consecutive months. The level increases.
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