The crisis of memory chip “food shortage” is approaching

Huawei has two key lifelines in chip supply, one is the continuous supply of TSMC, and the other is the guarantee of the

However, in the long run, it is difficult for Huawei to completely replace all US-based chip suppliers, because many key chips are still exclusively owned by US-based suppliers.

Micron confirms that it will stop supplying Huawei, the crisis of memory chip

The overseas market of Huawei mobile phones may be divided by Samsung

Huawei grabbed 19% of the global smartphone market in the first quarter of 2019, setting a record high, surpassing Apple to become the world’s second largest smartphone brand factory, second only to Samsung, and the industry believed that until the end of 2019, Huawei Can maintain the world’s second throne.

However, after the US ban, Huawei’s overseas sales will inevitably be affected. In addition, if Google’s applications and services cannot be used in smartphones in the future, the acceptance of overseas consumers is not optimistic. The company’s internal goal is to increase its domestic market share as soon as possible. , make up for the loss reduced overseas.

The industry believes that the overseas mobile phone market share lost by Huawei is most likely to be taken away by Samsung, followed by domestic mobile phone brands such as Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo.

In addition, Apple may also get some market share, but if the domestic sales of Apple iPhones are banned, or Apple’s tariffs are raised, it will also be another storm under the friction between China and the United States, and Samsung will be no compromise. the big winner.

Huawei’s smartphone sales in 2018 were 205 million units. Due to the strong growth performance in the first quarter of 2019, the market research agency raised its mobile phone shipments for 2019 to 240 million to 260 million units. As the situation worsens, Huawei’s mobile phone shipments in 2019 have been reduced by the market to 165 million units, with Europe and Latin America having the greatest impact.

It can be seen from this that after the US sanctions against Huawei this time have hit Huawei, the biggest beneficiary is Samsung, and Samsung has benefited from both the upstream chip side and the downstream system side.

Samsung will not only take over Huawei’s overseas smartphone market share, making the system more competitive. On the upstream chip side, Huawei has no supply of DRAM and NAND Flash chips from Micron and Western Digital, and can only rely heavily on it. Samsung, this is a very dangerous thing.

Because the manufacturers who have cooperated with Samsung know that Samsung’s business model is controlled from upstream to downstream. Once there is a conflict with their own business interests, they will disconnect the partner without any scruples, and there will be no friendship. There are also very few companies that can cooperate with Samsung for a long time.

After the sanctions imposed by the U.S. Department of Commerce, none of the U.S. suppliers dared to continue to deal with Huawei. Just as Micron said, 13% of the company’s revenue comes from Huawei’s contribution. The industry believes that Micron’s revenue from the Chinese market is as high as 50%. %, but after this wave of strong winds and waves, the trend of “de-beautification” may be difficult to resist. It just depends on the progress of domestic chip technology and when it can be made up.

The continuous development of Sino-US friction is the confrontation between the two major economies in the world. The consumption power of the people and the global economic prosperity have been affected. Zhang Zhongmou, the founder of TSMC, also said a few days ago that the US restrictions on Huawei will hinder China, the United States, and even the It is the progress of technological innovation in the world.

For U.S.-based suppliers, due to regulatory restrictions, U.S. companies have to comply, but the situation continues to deteriorate. Even foreign companies are very worried that they will gradually lose China’s huge market business, which will be of no use to the company’s long-term development. Not a loss.

In this unpredictable war, no one is the absolute winner.

Published on 09/20/2022