According to a report by the Russian “Izvestia” on September 10, a recent study in Russia showed that by 2030, 45.5% of Russian incumbents are at risk of being replaced by robots, and they may have to leave their jobs or retrain.
The research was carried out by experts from the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, who assessed industries that may be the first to automate in the future. The results show that over 50% of jobs in industries such as hospitality and catering, manufacturing, agriculture and forestry, retail and mining can be done by robots.
By analysing and evaluating data on the number of employees in various industries in Russia, by 2030, 45.5% of Russian employees (about 20 million people) are at risk of being replaced by robots. The report pointed out that the assessment only applies to Russian citizens who are formally employed.
Stepan Zemtsov, acting head of the Entrepreneurship Research Laboratory of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, said that the risk of being replaced by robots does not mean that you will lose your job immediately tomorrow. Develop your own abilities.
But at the same time Zemtsov also pointed out that after 2025, with the rapid transformation of all walks of life in Russia towards automation, many people will “have no time to adapt to new changes, acquire new occupations, start their own businesses, and buy robots.” He It is pointed out that some citizens will not be able to change their work content, learn new skills and compete with robots.
To avoid job losses, the researchers suggest taxing robots and using the money collected for social assistance; or reducing working hours, such as a four-day week. However, Zemtsov also emphasized that there are no experiments to prove the effectiveness of these measures.
Fedor Prokopov, director of the Institute of Employment and Occupation at the Russian State Higher School of Economics, pointed out that many countries are facing the problem that workers may be replaced by machines. He believes that the study is not a prediction, but a warning to draw public attention to the problem. Often, automation is changing the nature of people’s work, and it still requires the presence of employees.
Taking the automotive industry as an example, Prokopov pointed out that in the past two or three decades, most of the processes in the automotive industry have been completed by industrial robots, and it is still humans who operate and monitor them. Cars are getting more affordable, production is getting bigger, and the workforce isn’t dwindling.
In addition, Prokopov emphasized that breakthrough technologies can also create additional employment opportunities. For example, the invention of the personal computer gave birth to many computer and network technology-related occupations such as programmers and network administrators.
Alexander Sershukov, secretary of the Russian Federation of Independent Trade Unions, said that the risk of Russians being “robbed of their jobs” by robots has been exaggerated. The ownership rate of robotics equipment in Russia is well below the global average, making it more affordable for companies to hire employees due to cheap labor.
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