Downstream applications gradually expand

European and American countries have established a complete industrial robot industry system in the past few decades, focusing on large-scale industries with their own scale effects, and have a mature supplier system, forming four major families of industrial robots: Germany KUKA, Switzerland ABB , Japan Fanuc, Japan YASKAWA.

In terms of the industrial chain, the upstream and midstream of the industrial robot industry are respectively the field of components such as controllers, servo systems, and reducers, and the manufacture of complete robots; the downstream is system integration, mainly covering welding, sorting, spraying and other production fields; end customers Including automotive, 3C, metal, food and other industries. Industrial robots have broad application scenarios, among which overseas brand industrial robots have achieved mature applications in the automotive market, leading domestic industrial robots.

As the application scenarios of industrial robots gradually shift from automobile and other fields to general manufacturing and emerging industries, such as new energy lithium batteries and photovoltaic industries, domestic enterprises and overseas suppliers can avoid entering into homogeneous low-price competition and increase market space broad.

In the field of small-load welding, the repetitive positioning accuracy and coverage of domestic industrial robots are close to those of the “Four Families” products, and the maximum shaft speed is still slightly behind that of overseas brands. In terms of repetitive positioning accuracy, domestic industrial robots can be accurate to 0.05mm, which is similar to the accuracy of industrial robots from major overseas suppliers, but there is still room for improvement compared with the robots with the highest accuracy overseas (0.02mm).

In terms of coverage, the main domestic supplier robots can achieve 1440mm-2010mm, which is roughly equivalent to the 1200mm-2028mm that can be achieved by the four major family products. In terms of the maximum shaft speed, in addition to the domestic industrial robot faucet which can reach about 700°/s, there is still a certain gap between the maximum shaft speed of most industrial robots and overseas brands.

▲Comparison of parameters of welding industrial robots in domestic and foreign enterprises

Second, change lanes to overtake,Domestic substitution accelerates

At present, the automotive industry is still the main downstream application field of domestic and foreign industrial robot suppliers; among them, the downstream brands of overseas brands are mainly used in automobiles, and the domestic brands mainly provide robot products in the automotive industry segments such as stamping, welding, spraying, and packaging.

Estun’s welding technology has significant advantages. In 2020, it completed the merger and reorganization of Cloos, a leading welding company. At present, the company’s pressure welding technology has surpassed that of some overseas brands. Acquired overseas spraying robot manufacturing and system integrator CMA and general industrial robot system integrator EVOLUT, accelerating the improvement of robot spraying technology.

In 2021, Estun issued an order to sign a robot sales contract with Henan Juntong Vehicle Co., Ltd., marking the company’s acquisition of large-scale orders in the field of special-purpose vehicle manufacturing. We believe that with the gradual recovery of downstream manufacturing demand, the prosperity of the industrial robot industry is expected to continue to improve. As the main downstream application field, the automotive industry has a broad market space.

The establishment of Estun’s large-scale benchmarking project has opened up market space for domestic industrial robot suppliers in the field of vehicle manufacturing. With the continuous improvement of domestic suppliers’ technical level and project experience, the penetration rate of domestic brands in the automotive industry is expected to continue. Promotion, domestic substitution accelerates.

▲Application fields of major domestic industrial robot enterprises

▲Customer structure of major domestic industrial robot companies

As of 2020, the proportion of domestic industrial robot applications in non-automotive fields has increased from about 50% in 2010 to 70%+, showing a gradual increasing trend. Among them, the application in the field of 3C exceeds 30%, the application in the field of metal manufacturing exceeds 12%, and the application in the field of lithium battery and food exceeds 5%. With the rapid development of 5G, new energy and other fields, new downstream application scenarios of industrial robots continue to expand; in addition, with the continuous advancement of robot technology and the economic improvement brought by the use of robots, industrial robots are used in metal manufacturing, food and beverage, etc. Applications in industries with relatively short life cycles also continue to increase.

At present, domestic industrial robot suppliers have a solid position in the low-end market, and overseas industrial robot suppliers are mainly concentrated in the high-end market. Therefore, overseas brands have a larger market share in the automobile and warehousing and logistics industries, while domestic brands are in the low-end market. Automotive electronics, auto parts, metal processing and other industries where the market is dominant and the technical difficulty is relatively low have a large market share; in other industries, such as food and beverage, medical supplies and other industries, due to the high degree of customization, the value of the market is relatively high. The automobile industry is low, and it is difficult for foreign brands to take full account of it, so it is mainly covered by domestic industrial robot suppliers.

With the gradual expansion of the downstream application fields of industrial robots, the incremental market space for domestic industrial robots is broad, and domestic industrial robot companies are expected to gradually change lanes and overtake by virtue of their own advantages.

▲2010 The proportion of downstream application fields of domestic industrial robots in 2018

▲ 2020 The proportion of downstream application fields of domestic industrial robots in 2018

▲ The proportion of low, medium and high-end processes of domestic and foreign industrial robot suppliers

▲ The proportion of downstream application fields of domestic and foreign industrial robot suppliers

When comparing the accuracy of industrial robots at home and abroad, the Estun load classification standard is generally used: small load (0-30kg), medium load (30-100kg), large load (100-350kg) and super large load (> 350kg) .

In the field of small load welding, domestic industrial robots have similar positioning accuracy and arm span to those of the “Four Families” products, but there is still a certain gap with overseas brands in terms of maximum speed. In terms of repetitive positioning accuracy, the small-load welding robots of major domestic suppliers can reach 0.05-0.08mm, which is roughly equivalent to the four major overseas industrial robots (0.05-0.08mm). In terms of arm span, the small-load welding robots of major domestic suppliers The maximum working distance can reach more than 1400mm, which is on par with overseas brands; in terms of maximum speed, the small load welding robots of major domestic suppliers reach 125-175mm, which still has a certain room for improvement (180-260mm) compared with overseas brands.

▲Performance comparison of domestic and foreign small load welding robot products

In the field of small and medium load bending, the repeatability, arm span and maximum speed parameters of domestic robots are close to those of the “four families” products. The repeat positioning accuracy of the small and medium load welding robots of major domestic suppliers is about 0.03-0.1mm, which is close to the accuracy of the four major family products (0.04-0.07mm); in terms of arm span, the maximum working distance of the small and medium load welding robots of major domestic suppliers can reach More than 2500mm, the gap with the four major families is small (2600mm). In terms of maximum speed, the small and medium load welding robots of major domestic suppliers reach 110-175mm, which is basically the same as the four families (110-170mm).

▲Performance comparison of medium-load bending robot products at home and abroad

In the field of large-load stamping robots, the accuracy of domestic models has been comparable to that of some of the four major overseas family products. The repeat positioning accuracy of domestic industrial robot faucets is 0.2mm, which is basically the same as that of some products of the four major families (both up to 0.2mm). However, compared with some products of the four major families, there is still a certain room for improvement. . In the field of small-load stamping, Eft launched a stamping robot with a repeat positioning accuracy of 0.07mm in 2017. Domestic industrial robots are constantly developing into the field of high-precision stamping.

▲Performance comparison of large-load stamping robot products at home and abroad

On the whole, the gap between the machining accuracy of domestic industrial robots and the four major families is gradually narrowing, and there is still some room for improvement in some accuracy. As domestic industrial robot suppliers continue to improve the technical system through “independent research and development + extension mergers and acquisitions”, the machining accuracy of domestic industrial robots will continue to be optimized, and it is expected to accelerate catching up with overseas industrial robot brands under the trend of domestic substitution.

In 2020, the price of domestic robots from the four major families is about 40% higher than the price of domestic industrial robots of the same type. At present, the overall scale of domestic industrial robots is still small. In the future, with the rapid development of the industry and the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of domestic brands, the scale advantage of domestic suppliers will gradually be reflected, and there is still room for reduction in the cost side.

▲2020 Estimated average price of industrial robots from the four major families and major domestic suppliers (unit: ten thousand yuan)

In the medium and long term, the market share that domestic industrial robots can increase is still relatively large, and there are obvious advantages in some sub-segments. The main advantages of domestic brands include:

1) Localization advantage: domestic industrial robot suppliers have a complete marketing network and after-sales service system in China, and customers enjoy more efficient and convenient services;

2) Cost control advantages: overseas suppliers still have high costs in terms of import tariffs and distributor layout; in addition, after domestic brands gradually form scale effects, their bargaining power for upstream is enhanced, and cost control is expected to be further improved;

3) Advantages of the whole industry chain: Domestic industrial robot suppliers continue to improve the technical system through “independent research and development + extension mergers and acquisitions”, improve the self-made rate of core components, and gradually form the advantages of the whole industry chain.

On the whole, benefiting from the upgrading of the downstream manufacturing industry and the superposition of emerging application fields to open up market space, the prosperity of the industrial robot industry continues to improve; domestic industrial robot companies compete with overseas giants in dislocation, while exerting their own price, cost control, localization and the whole industry. Chain and other advantages, accelerate domestic substitution.

From 2015 to 2020, the output of domestic industrial robots increased from 33,000 units in 2015 to 237,000 units in 2020, with a CAGR of 48.3%; sales increased from 69,000 units in 2015 to about 170,000 units in 2020, with a CAGR of 19.8 %.

From 2015 to 2017, the sales volume of domestic industrial robots increased from 69,000 units to 156,000 units, with a CAGR of 50.4%, achieving rapid growth. Rapid growth.

From 2018 to 2019, the growth rate of domestic industrial robot sales slowed down relatively, reaching the lowest growth rate of -1.4% in 2018, mainly due to the significant reduction in policy subsidies and the impact of trade frictions, and downstream demand continued to be sluggish; since the second half of 2020, Benefiting from the recovery of the manufacturing industry and industrial upgrading, the prosperity of the domestic industrial robot industry continued to pick up. The annual production and sales were 237,000 and 170,000 units, an increase of about 27% and 21% year-on-year respectively.

▲Domestic industrial robot output (unit: ten thousand units)

▲ Domestic industrial robot sales (unit: 10,000 units)

The domestic substitution of industrial robots has accelerated, and the growth rate of the leader is higher than the industry average. From 2011 to 2020, the sales volume of domestic industrial robots increased from 23,000 units to about 170,000 units, with a CAGR of 25.1%; among them, the sales volume of domestic industrial robots increased from about 800 units to about 50,000 units, with a CAGR of 58.3%, higher than the domestic overall The sales growth rate was about 33 percentage points; the market penetration rate increased from 3.5% to 29% during the same period, an increase of 25.5 percentage points. From 2016 to 2020, the sales volume of Estun industrial robots increased from about 1,000 units to about 6,000 units, with a CAGR of 56.5%. The compound growth rate during the same period was about 41 percentage points higher than that of the industry, and the market penetration rate increased from about 1% to 4%. , an increase of about 3 percentage points.

▲Sales volume of industrial robots of major domestic enterprises (unit: 10,000 units)

The average salary of domestic manufacturing employees increased from 31,000 yuan in 2010 to 78,000 yuan in 2019, with a CAGR of 10.8%, showing an increasing trend year by year. The domestic demographic dividend is fading, labor costs are rising year by year, and the demand for automation upgrades in downstream enterprises is further increased, and manual replacement is expected to accelerate.

Benefiting from policy support and increasing demand for industrial upgrading, the density of domestic industrial robots has gradually increased from 10 units/10,000 people in 2011 to 187 units/10,000 people in 2019, with a CAGR of 44.2%. From the perspective of penetration rate, the density of domestic industrial robots is still low; in 2019, the density of industrial robots in Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and Germany was 918, 855, 364, and 346, respectively, and there is still a lot of room for improvement in the density of domestic industrial robots.

▲Density of domestic industrial robots (number of industrial robots per 10,000 industrial workers) (unit: units/10,000 people)

▲2019 Years around the world/Regional Industrial Robot Density (Unit: Taiwan)/10,000 people)

From 2015 to 2020, the global sales of industrial robots increased from 254,000 units to 397,000 units, with a CAGR of 9.3%. From 2015 to 2017, the global penetration rate of domestic industrial robots increased from 27% to 41%, an increase of 14 percentage points; after 2017, the global penetration rate of domestic industrial robots remained above 35%. In 2018, due to the significant reduction in policy subsidies and trade frictions in China, downstream demand was sluggish, and the global share of industrial robot sales fell by 4.5 percentage points year-on-year in 2017. With the continuous recovery of the industry’s prosperity, the global share of domestic industrial robot sales has increased year by year since 2018. As of 2020, the global share of domestic industrial robot sales has increased to 42.8%.

From 2015 to 2020, the export volume of domestic industrial robots increased from 12,000 units in 2015 to 81,000 units in 2020, with a CAGR of 46.5%; the global share of export volume increased from 4.6% to 20.4%, an increase of about 16 percentage points .

▲Domestic industrial robot exports (unit: 10,000 units)

▲Global share of domestic industrial robot exports

Domestic leaders have established advantages in some sub-sectors through early mergers and acquisitions, and their performance has surpassed overseas competitors. In addition, benefiting from the upgrading of the domestic manufacturing industry, the demand for industrial automation has increased significantly, and the domestic leading production expansion pace has a high degree of matching, and its share has rapidly increased.

Domestic industrial robots are experiencing a series of opportunities to drive the increase in global penetration, including the increase in industrial automation demand driven by domestic manufacturing upgrades, and the manufacturing capacity bottleneck driven by overseas demand recovery. The space for industrial automation has been opened, and domestic enterprises are expected to continue. Benefit from high industry growth and share increase.